Psychic Powers: The Art of Educated Guessing

Is change good or bad? My strategy thus far is to ride with a guy for a while before changing. What happens is we see a player hit a couple shots in a row, change to that player just to see our old player make positive plays; switch back, and the other player scores more positive points. So we end up with 0 trying to change as opposed to sticking it out with a player to get points. Basketball is a game of runs. One team will have a good four to five minute run and the the other team will have a run of their own for a couple minutes too. Players are the same way. The trick is deciphering when is an appropriate to change.

The game within the game of basketball is adjustments. Coaches made adjustments before the next game starts, they make adjustments at the end of the half, they make adjustments at each time out, they even make adjustments on the fly.The May 13th game of Wizards and Pacers: Hibbert had an okay first quarter, then Hibbert, and subsequently the rest of the Pacers disappeared. I never would have predicted Gortat as the guy to go absolutely NUTS in that game. From the end of the first quarter on, I tweeted out that Gortat should be the guy we were on. The game was being played out differently then what was statistically likely to happen.

The reason why I blog is to give everyone a list of players, or a good idea of who SHOULD be good in a game. It doesn't always play out that way. Durant had an off night last night, he wasn't Hibbert awful, (then again, I probably could have been more effective, and I'm 5'9") but Griffin, Westbrook and Paul were having better games. When I got back to following the game live, I tweeted out an adjustment to make a switch.

Sometimes we need to make adjustments. I try not to make knee jerk reactions because nutty things happen sometimes. Luis Scola scored like 90 points off four play in under a minute of game time. I was tempted to switch, however the law of averages told me that the spurt I just saw was an outlier and not the norm. Subsequently, Scola played another four minutes and had two missed shots and a turnover.

This is all an educated guessing game. I try to list the top five or six players per game. Hoping that if my first option has an awful outing, we can switch to another player. Unfortunately, this is only a guessing game. I'm just hoping to guess correctly.