MyGuy Miyagi: The Thunder Spur(t)s 5/25/14

If you are trying out MyGuy for the first time, we have some Guidelines and Tips to help you out.

Follow along on twitter: @HuuMyGuy. When I can I tweet out who I start with each quarter, when I make changes and when the stars are on the bench. We also have this chat room set up. Here we just chat about the game, switch to players shooting free throws and I can answer questions live, whether about strategy or questions about the game in general. I recommend popping in before hand to see if you can get in. Most people who logged in through twitter were able to get in just fine. I also think you can use Facebook to log in. The updates are important because if someone gets hot it's important to change to them early.

This game will probably not be a blowout like last game, but if it is, the chat room and twitter feed are good because I usually tweet out which bench players are likely to do well. (Guys that we rarely talk about in these blog posts)

Thunder Vs Spurs 8:30 ET TNT

Spurs
Duncan (Pts A-, Rebs A-, Blks A-, FT% C, Streak B)
Parker (Pts A-, Asts A-, Stls B-, FT% B, Streak B-)
Leonard (Pts B-, Rebs B, Asts C, Steals B, FT% B, Streak B-)
Thunder
Durant (Points A++, Rebounds B, Assists B, Free throws A, Streak A-)
Westbrook (Pts B+, Rebs B+, Asts B+, FT % B, Streak B) 

PYP: Protect Your Points Player (When you hit 150 in a quarter): Kabongo (Spurs) What is the PYP Player?

Well... on one hand there's not much to analyze from last game. The Thunder got rolled (pun unintended). About midway through the third quarter you could see it was over. Here is what we can take from Game 2. The Thunder have very little offensive firepower. When either Durant or Westbrook are off, it is going to make it a hard game for the Thunder, or in the case of last game, when BOTH are off... the Thunder will get routed. Duncan has looked really good in this series. The Spurs have won both games pretty impressively. Part of me wants to switch to Duncan to start the game because the Thunder don't really have a way to stop them. Kendrick Perkins has been awful, Steven Adams gets in foul trouble early and Nick Collison can't defend against the future hall-of-famer the entire game. But...

My Pick- Durant.....and Duncan
Do I sound like a broken record? Look, Durant was awful last game, but we look at Durant's entire body of work. Durant is still the MOST LIKELY candidate to get the most points. First off, this is the league MVP, he doesn't get this distinction by having mediocre games on a consistent basis. I think a bad game last game actually fuels him more and I feel MORE confident that he goes out and plays a better game.
Durant is just 25 years old and will also play a TON of minutes. The more you play the more chances you get to make positive stats. Pretty simple concept. Durant is averging 43 minutes a game. (Actually a little more since last game he only played 29 minutes, but that's an outlier and if we took it out it'd be more like 44-45 minutes a game.) So Durant will only be on the bench (not getting any points) for about 5 minutes a game. Pretty good odds. Compared to 38-year-old Duncan who averages about 33 minutes a game. Duncan spends 15 minutes on the bench, that's over a quarter of the game. Durant sits out mostly during the start of the second quarter. Duncan gets sporadic breaks throughout the game. Durant will play three full 12 minute quarters while Duncan is more likely to play about four 8-9 minute quarters. Since each quarter is basically the start of a new MyGuy game, Durant will have the advantage 75% of the time. He is a better pick if you just like to choose one player and come back at the start of the next quarter.
Finally, I think the Thunder win this game. For the Thunder to play well, Durant will most likely need to have a really good game. The Thunder have looked bad so far. But the Thunder did beat the Spurs 4-0 in the regular season and in 2012, the Spurs had a 2-0 lead on the Thunder in the playoffs and the Thunder came back and won 4 straight to win the series. This series is not over. Historically, if a team comes back to their home court after being down 2-0, they tend to win the third game. I think the Thunder will win tonight which is why I am going to Durant...but
My Pick- Duncan
Tim Duncan has been very good this series. No one can really defend him for long stretches in this series. He's been the best and most consistent player on both teams. Ibake is coming back from the Spurs and he usually defends Duncan well. However, Ibake has a serious calf injury that was supposed to sideline him for at least a month. There is no way Ibake is at full health, and can a hobbled Ibake stop Duncan? I say it is doubtful. It's hard for me to pick against Duncan tonight, and yet I did anyway. But if Durant isn't feeling it and Duncan (or Parker/Westbrook) starts playing well, I advocate a change sooner than usual.

That's the difference in this series vs. the Miami/Indiana series. Lebron is by FAR the best player out there. Durant is the best player in this series, but Duncan/Parker/Westbrook are much closer in production then whoever is in second place after Lebron.